What is the Trump Effect actually producing? The dimension of the phenomenon
The effect of the post-2024 US political landscape on outbound relocation is documented by multiple converging sources. The most rigorous comes from Henley & Partners, the international advisory firm specializing in residence and citizenship by investment: in Q1 2025, US national inquiries jumped 183% compared to Q1 2024, while applications from US investors in Q1 2025 alone rose 39% versus Q4 2024 — suggesting growth that goes beyond the immediate post-electoral spike. By the end of Q3 2025, applications from US nationals were already 67% higher than the entire 2024 total, which itself had been a record year. American applicants now represent over 30% of all investment migration applications processed by Henley & Partners — almost equal to the combined volume of the next five client nationalities.
On the operational side, Axios in a June 2, 2025 report described the post-election surge in expat consulting demand as the “Trump bump,” with several US firms reporting a doubling of inquiries. NPR, in an analysis published on April 13, 2026, observed unusual peaks in domestic naturalization filings — a sign of broader repositioning, not just outbound migration. CNN documented the phenomenon in an investigative piece on March 28, 2026.
One important caveat for readers tracking the data: official US citizenship renunciation numbers, published quarterly by the IRS in the Federal Register, are not yet a reliable indicator of the post-2024 effect. There is a 12 to 18 month administrative lag between renunciation and publication (Boundless, Rise in U.S. Citizenship Renunciations, January 2026), so 2025 data largely reflects renunciations from 2023 or early 2024. The 2024 total was approximately 5,000 cases; the all-time record remains 6,705 in 2020. Any clear measurement of the second-term Trump impact on official renunciation numbers will not be visible in the public record before late 2026.
The drivers of the phenomenon are structural, not just political: rising US healthcare costs, eroded housing affordability, political polarization, and the normalization of remote work. The post-election context of 2024 acted as an accelerator on a trend that had been building for years — the term AmerExit, which entered mainstream American vocabulary after the elections, is its cultural recognition.
What other countries are Americans considering when leaving the US?
Italy is among the most searched destinations for Americans considering relocation, but it is neither the only one nor the largest in absolute numbers. The 2024-2026 shortlist of plausible destinations has consolidated around a cluster of countries combining visa accessibility, lower cost of living than the US, public healthcare quality, and a degree of perceived political stability.
A 2024 survey conducted by Expatsi, a US relocation advisory firm, polled over 116,000 American citizens and ranked Portugal as the top requested destination, followed by Spain, Mexico, Costa Rica, Italy, France, Canada, the UK, Ireland, and New Zealand. However, demand data does not match actual relocation data: Mexico remains by far the largest real destination, with approximately 800,000 American citizens permanently residing there — the world’s largest US expatriate community — supported by geographic proximity, a generous 180-day visa-free stay, and significantly lower cost of living. Portugal, according to AIMA (Portugal’s Agency for Integration, Migrations and Asylum), reported 20,959 American residents in 2024, up roughly 50% from 2023, with about 4,800 new regularizations during the year (data cited by Bloomberg and international news agencies in February 2026).
| Meta | What it offers | Constraints emerging in 2025-2026 | Typical American profile |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal | D7 visa with low passive income threshold (~€920/month), Schengen access, public healthcare | NHR closed to new applicants since 2024; new IFICI regime excludes retirees (foreign pensions now taxed up to 53%); proposed extension of naturalization period from 5 to 10 years under debate | Mid-income retiree, LGBTQ+ retiree, remote worker |
| Mexico | Proximity to US, low cost of living ($1,200-1,800/month), 180-day visa-free entry | Security uneven by region; gentrification tensions in CDMX and coastal areas | Young family, budget-conscious retiree, digital nomad |
| Spain | Digital Nomad Visa, excellent public healthcare, Mediterranean lifestyle | Golden Visa abolished in 2024; anti-tourist tensions in Barcelona and Madrid | Tech remote worker, retiree, creative professional |
| Italy | Citizenship by descent, structured tax incentives, cultural heritage | 2025 citizenship reform (two-generation limit); longer consular processing times | Italian-American descendant, professional 30-50, HNWI, Southern Italy retiree |
| France | Talent Passport, public healthcare, educational prestige | Among Europe's highest tax rates; language barrier; expensive Paris housing | Qualified professional, academic, cultural profile |
| Costa Rica | Accessible Pensionado Visa, biodiversity, political stability | Real estate pressure in expat-driven areas; expensive private healthcare | Active retiree, outdoor lifestyle profile |
| Canada | Language, proximity, public healthcare, similar political system | Selective points-based visa for professionals; high housing costs in Toronto and Vancouver | Qualified professional, family with children |
The shortlist is wide but evolving. Several countries that until 2023 were considered relatively easy destinations are now raising entry thresholds: Portugal is debating a possible extension of the residency period required for naturalization from five to ten years (a bill vetoed and returned to Parliament in early 2026), Spain officially closed its Golden Visa to new applications in April 2025, and Portugal had ended the real estate route to its program in 2023. Doors remain open, but they are closing selectively in many places.
Why Italy within the shortlist? What it offers that other destinations don't
Within the shortlist of plausible destinations, Italy occupies a position no other country fully replicates. Three elements differentiate it for specific American profiles.
- The first is citizenship by descent. Italy has — or, after the 2025 reform, had to a broader extent — one of the world’s most accessible systems for recognizing citizenship in descendants of emigrants. For roughly 17 million American citizens of declared Italian ancestry, Italian citizenship means European citizenship: free movement, the right to work and establish residence in all twenty-seven EU member states, access to European public healthcare. None of the alternative destinations offers a comparable channel given the scale of the diaspora. Portugal recognizes citizenship for descendants of Sephardic Jews (a path now closing), Ireland for grandchildren of Irish-born nationals, but the eligible populations are far smaller than the Italian-American one.
- The second element is the combination of structured tax incentives and quality of life — at a moment in history when Italy’s tax advantage for foreign retirees has no direct equivalent among competing destinations. Portugal is the most telling case. For over a decade, the Non-Habitual Resident (NHR) regime, established in 2009, was the main catalyst for international retiree flows to Lisbon, the Algarve, and Cascais: it taxed foreign pensions at a flat 10% (introduced in 2020, after a decade of full exemption) for ten years. The regime closed to new applicants on January 1, 2024, and was definitively replaced by the IFICI regime (Tax Incentive for Scientific Research and Innovation), which is structurally different: it targets highly qualified professionals in scientific research and innovation, not retirees. Foreign pensions received by anyone becoming a Portuguese resident from 2024 onward are now taxed at standard progressive rates, which can reach up to 53%.
The numerical comparison with Italy, on this specific segment, is stark. Italy’s optional regime for foreign retirees — set out in Article 24-ter of the Italian Income Tax Code (TUIR) — applies a 7% substitute tax on all foreign-source income for ten consecutive tax periods, available to those transferring tax residence to Southern Italian municipalities (Sicily, Calabria, Sardinia, Campania, Basilicata, Abruzzo, Molise, Puglia). The population threshold for eligible municipalities was raised from 20,000 to 30,000 inhabitants by Law No. 34 of March 11, 2026 (the annual SME law), in force since April 7, 2026, significantly expanding the pool of eligible territories. For an American retiree receiving $48,000 per year in Social Security who relocates to an eligible town in Calabria, Puglia, or Sicily, the differential versus the same move to Portugal after 2024 is material — in the order of tens of thousands of dollars over a decade. Greece offers a 7% substitute tax on foreign income but with stricter eligibility and a smaller geographic pool. For the mid-income American retiree seeking low cost of living, a mild climate, and contained taxation, Southern Italy is currently the most articulated proposition on the European market.
A sector data point helps quantify the phenomenon: according to the American Retirement Exodus report published by Get Golden Visa in April 2026, based on Social Security Administration data, approximately 15,465 American citizens receive their retirement benefits while residing in Italy — fourth in Europe among American retirement destinations. The number has grown every year since 2020. - The third element is cultural heritage and historical identity. It is the least quantifiable factor, but the one that emerges most frequently in the deeper motivations expressed in conversations with relocation clients. For many Americans, Italy is not just a destination: it is family memory, a language overheard at home as children, a country whose image they have built through books, films, food, and stories. For those with Italian roots, moving to Italy is not expatriation: it is returning to a place no one in their family had ever truly left.
Where are Americans relocating to in Italy? A decisional matrix by profile
Geographic distribution of American relocations within Italy in 2026 maps onto three distinct poles, each tied to a specific applicant profile. The right destination is rarely a matter of personal preference alone — it is dictated by the regulatory framework that fits your situation.
- If your profile is family with children, the historical urban pole is the natural answer: Rome, Florence, Milan, and increasingly Bologna. These cities host established American communities, certified international schools, US consular outposts (the Embassy in Rome, Consulates General in Milan, Florence, Naples), and English-language professional infrastructure. Rome remains the reference for families with diplomatic, religious, or international-education requirements.
- If your profile is mid-income retiree, the relevant pole is Southern Italy under the post-2026 framework. The 7% optional regime for foreign retirees, expanded by Law 34/2026 to municipalities with up to 30,000 inhabitants, is the dominant fiscal driver — and it is geographically constrained. Eligible regions are Sicily, Calabria, Sardinia, Campania (Mezzogiorno areas), Basilicata, Abruzzo, Molise, and Puglia. Choosing where to live, in this case, is a regulatory question first and a lifestyle question second.
- If your profile is high-income remote worker or pre-retiree, the third and fastest-growing pole is the central-northern Adriatic and Lake Garda area: Marche, coastal Abruzzo, the Veneto side of Lake Garda, and increasingly Bologna and the Romagna coast. These are territories chosen by remote workers and pre-retirees attracted by favorable real-estate price-to-quality ratios and a less tourism-saturated quality of life than Tuscany or the Amalfi Coast.
The geography of relocation is not homogeneous, and that makes generic recommendations misleading. Family with school-aged children → mid-large city with international schools. Retiree on Social Security or pension → eligible Southern town under the 7% regime. High-earning remote worker → central-northern mid-sized city. The first decision is not which city — it is which of the three profiles you fit, and which fiscal framework you qualify for.
Which Italian relocation pathway is right for your profile in 2026?
The right legal pathway depends on the applicant’s profile: retiree, professional, investor, or Italian descendant. The table below summarizes the most frequently activated routes in the first quarter of 2026, with realistic timelines and target profiles. Operational details for each regime are covered in the dedicated vertical articles linked at the end of this piece.
| Pathway | Key requirement | Realistic timeline | Best fit for |
|---|---|---|---|
| Citizenship by descent (jure sanguinis) | Italian-born parent or grandparent (post Law 74/2025) | 12-36 months | Italian-American descendants with direct lineage |
| Impatriati regime | Tax residence transfer + qualified work (Art. 5, D.Lgs 209/2023) | 3-6 months | Employees, self-employed, remote workers |
| 7% optional regime for retirees | Foreign pension + Southern town ≤30,000 (Art. 24-ter TUIR, Law 34/2026) | 4-8 months | US retirees in eligible municipalities |
| Elective Residence Visa (ERV) | Verifiable passive income (~€32,000/year) | 3-6 months | US retirees without Italian descent |
| Investor Visa (Italy Golden Visa) | Investment from €250,000 to €2 million | 3-4 months | HNWIs with EU residency strategy |
| Digital Nomad Visa | Qualified remote work + income ~€28,000 (Art. 6-quinquies Law 25/2022) | 3-5 months | Self-employed and remote employees |
| Two-year naturalization | Italian-born parent or ancestor + 2-year residence (Law 74/2025) | 3-4 years total | Italian descendants outside the two-degree jure sanguinis limit |
The pathway most commonly chosen by professionals aged 30-50 is the impatriati regime, while mid-income retirees gravitate toward the 7% optional regime in Southern towns enabled by Law 34/2026. Citizenship by descent remains the most coveted but also the most affected pathway after the 2025 reform, which restricted access to those with an Italian-born parent or grandparent.
What are the real frictions Americans face during the move?
The distance between deciding to relocate and actually completing the move is populated by administrative frictions most Americans don’t anticipate. They are technical, not blocking — but they routinely add months to the timeline and erode initial determination. Identifying them upfront is the best way to navigate them.
Documents: apostille and certified translation
For any pathway, you will need to present birth, marriage, and divorce certificates — and in some cases, an FBI Identity History Summary — to Italian authorities. All documents must be apostilled under the Hague Convention of October 5, 1961, and translated into Italian by a certified translator. Apostille jurisdiction lies with individual state Secretaries of State for vital records, and with the US Department of State for the FBI document. Realistic issuance times range from four to twelve weeks, rarely less.
Consular wait times
Wait times to obtain an appointment at an Italian consulate in the US vary by location and document type. For long-stay visas (Elective Residence, Investor, Digital Nomad), 2026 consular practice typically yields total waits of several months between scheduling the appointment and receiving the visa. Timelines are subject to seasonal variation and depend on volume at the specific consulate. Anyone planning a relocation should check current processing times at their assigned consulate of jurisdiction.
Registered long-term lease
To obtain the residence permit and register at the local civil registry (anagrafe), you will need a long-term lease agreement properly registered with the Italian Revenue Agency (Agenzia delle Entrate). In many tourist-heavy areas of Italy, the rental supply is heavily oriented toward short-term stays, both because of market dynamics and the characteristics of the available housing stock. Finding a registered long-term lease in the name of an American citizen without Italian credit history — ideally before arrival — requires advance planning. A common workaround is a temporary residence period while the long-term arrangement is finalized.
Codice fiscale (tax code) and bank account
The Italian tax identification number (codice fiscale) is required before nearly everything else: opening a bank account, signing a lease, activating utilities, registering a car. It is issued free of charge at any Italian consulate in the US, or at Agenzia delle Entrate offices once in Italy. Opening an Italian bank account is a separate non-trivial step: some Italian institutions are equipped to handle clients subject to the US Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA) and accept American citizens as account holders, while others prefer not to operate on these positions. It is worth verifying your target bank’s stance before initiating the account-opening process — your relocation consultant can typically help with this.
US driver's license
US driver’s licenses are valid for driving in Italy for twelve months from the date of residence acquisition, accompanied by a certified translation or an International Driving Permit. After the first year, you must pass the Italian written and practical driving exams to obtain a local license: the US does not have a full reciprocity agreement with Italy in this area. For anyone living outside major urban centers, the absence of a license becomes a meaningful constraint on daily life.
ETIAS launching Q4 2026
The European Travel Information and Authorization System (ETIAS) is the new electronic travel authorization for citizens of visa-exempt countries entering the Schengen Area, including the United States. The European Commission has confirmed operational launch in Q4 2026, with a transitional period and grace clause: full mandatory enforcement is expected from 2027. ETIAS only applies to short stays (up to 90 days within 180), and it does not replace visas or residence permits for those moving permanently — but anyone visiting Italy for pre-relocation reconnaissance trips will need to factor it into their planning timeline.
Who are the Americans who move back to the US after relocating?
A subset of US-to-Italy relocations does not consolidate over time. It is a reality worth naming openly, because anyone weighing this decision benefits from knowing it. Three recurring patterns emerge from Impatria’s follow-up observations on relocation clients over recent years, each with distinct motivations and timelines.
- The first pattern is isolated political motivation. These are people who decided to relocate primarily as a reaction to the US political climate, arriving in Italy without other deep anchors: no family lineage, no prior structured experience in the country, no working knowledge of the language. Return tends to mature within the first 18 to 24 months, when the initial urgency dissolves and the real weight of distance from family, professional networks, and familiar systems comes into focus. This is not personal weakness: it is a short circuit between a decision made in haste and a project that requires time to settle.
- The second pattern is friction with Italian rhythms. Slower administrative procedures, the complexity of bureaucratic context, the difficulty of building a social network without language fluency — these factors can progressively erode initial motivation. Return in this case may take longer, generally between two and four years, and is often preceded by partial repositioning: maintaining a foothold in the US, spending part of the year in Italy, until the center of gravity shifts back westward.
- The third pattern is family emergency. An aging parent who needs care, a serious health issue, an unexpected family event: these are causes independent of the relocation’s quality and can affect anyone, even those who have built solid integration. Return in this case is not a failure of the project, but a suspension — often temporary — driven by different and equally legitimate priorities.
All three patterns share a common feature: returning is generally more demanding than the original move, both economically and emotionally. Selling or divesting Italian property, reactivating US health coverage, rebuilding professional position, managing Italian tax compliance in the exit year — these are all steps that deserve conscious planning before relocating. Those who plan thoughtfully significantly reduce the risk of return in the first two categories, and at minimum reduce practical impact in the third should it occur.
What this means for the Italian market
The American inbound flow in 2026 has systemic implications that extend beyond individual relocations. Four areas of the Italian market are already registering the effect.
- The Southern Italy real-estate market shows recovery signs in territorial bands previously stagnant. The expansion of Law 34/2026 to municipalities up to 30,000 inhabitants has broadened the field of active markets: smaller towns under that threshold are recording rising transaction volumes, with prices per square meter still below the national average but trending upward. Italy’s Real Estate Market Observatory (OMI) at the Revenue Agency updates valuations semi-annually.
- Cross-border tax advisory is a structurally expanding sector. Managing simultaneous US compliance (Form 1040, FBAR FinCEN 114, Form 8938 FATCA) and Italian compliance (income tax return, RW schedule for foreign asset monitoring) requires specialized expertise that is currently underdimensioned relative to demand.
- Certified international schools, especially in mid-to-large cities, are reporting waiting lists for English-language programs. The Italian system recognizes several certification bodies, including the Council of International Schools and the International Baccalaureate Organization.
- Demand for notarial assistance services for property purchases by non-residents has risen sharply. The Italian procedure — preliminary sales agreement (compromesso), public deed before a notary, registration, and cadastral updating — requires qualified assistance for non-resident buyers without Italian fluency.
Conclusion
The American flow toward Italy in 2026 is one stream within a broader migration that US observers have begun calling AmerExit. It is not a short-term emotional escape: it is a choice that integrates political, demographic, fiscal, and cultural factors that have been maturing for years. The 30% monthly growth in Impatria inquiries recorded in April 2026 — one signal among many, consistent with international advisory data — captures the moment when Italy is activating, within the shortlist of plausible destinations, a structural pull function for specific profiles of reader.
Italy is not the leading destination by absolute numbers. Mexico beats it decisively on proximity and cost of living, Portugal has surpassed it in recent years as the leading desired destination, Spain challenges it on Mediterranean lifestyle. But Italy is the country that, for those with Italian roots or seeking cultural rootedness unavailable elsewhere, tells a different story. The Italian fiscal lever — unchanged impatriati regime, 7% optional retiree regime extended by Law 34/2026 to Southern municipalities up to 30,000 inhabitants, flat tax safeguard clause for those who transferred residence by end of 2025 — is working independently of the US political cycle. The Trump effect is the spark, not the fuel.
If you are weighing the move now, two operational considerations matter. First: consular timelines are lengthening precisely because demand is rising, so starting today realistically means completing the process in 2027 or 2028. Second: integrated motivation produces stable relocations, while purely reactive motivation rarely survives 24 months. Planning well precedes deciding well — whichever destination you ultimately choose.
Sources
- ISTAT, “Italians residing abroad — Years 2023 and 2024″, press release, July 23, 2025;
- Internal Revenue Service (IRS), Publication 54: Tax Guide for U.S. Citizens and Resident Aliens Abroad;
- International Bar Association, “An overview of Portugal’s new IFICI regime“, April 24, 2025;
- Henley & Partners, USA Wealth Report 2025 (with New World Wealth), May 2025;
- Boundless, “The Rise in U.S. Citizenship Renunciations“, January 2026 report based on IRS Federal Register data;
- Get Golden Visa, report American Retirement Exodus (April 2026), based on Social Security Administration data;
- Axios Philadelphia, “Italian Americans seek dual citizenship to flee Trump’s America“, June 2, 2025;
- CNN, “They moved to Italy to claim their citizenship. Then they were told they were no longer citizens“, March 28, 2026;
- NPR, “2025 shows drop in people being approved to become U.S. citizens“, April 13, 2026.
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The shortlist of consolidated destinations includes Portugal, Mexico, Spain, Italy, Costa Rica, France, Canada, the UK, Ireland, and New Zealand. Mexico remains by far the largest real destination (around 800,000 American residents), Portugal is the most desired in stated preference (with 20,959 American residents in 2024 per AIMA data), Spain leads remote-worker tech preferences. Italy stands out for accessible citizenship by descent, structured tax incentives (notably the 7% retiree regime in Southern municipalities post Law 34/2026), and the size of its diaspora — roughly 17 million Americans of declared Italian ancestry.
The effect of the post-2024 US political climate on outbound migration is documented by converging sources. Henley & Partners reported a 183% increase in US national inquiries for alternative residence and citizenship in Q1 2025 versus Q1 2024. Political motivation is rarely exclusive, however: it combines with healthcare costs, housing affordability, quality of life, and — for those choosing Italy — family lineage.
A linear plan typically requires nine to twelve months from first consultation to actual relocation. Timing is driven by four primary frictions: apostille issuance and certified translation of vital documents, consular appointment scheduling and visa processing, securing a registered long-term lease, and opening a FATCA-compliant Italian bank account. Skipping any of these only delays the timeline, never shortens it.
After Law 74/2025 and the Constitutional Court ruling of March 12, 2026, citizenship by descent is now limited to two degrees (Italian-born parent or grandparent). Great-grandchildren no longer qualify under standard jure sanguinis. Two alternative routes remain: judicial action through pre-1948 maternal line, and the abbreviated two-year naturalization conditional on continuous Italian residence.
A portion of relocations does not consolidate over time. The three most recurring return patterns are: isolated political motivation (return within 18-24 months), gradual friction with Italian rhythms (return within two to four years), and family emergency in the US (can affect anyone, regardless of relocation quality). Returning is generally more demanding than the original move: deliberate planning before relocating significantly reduces risk in the first two categories and softens practical impact in the third.
Yes, but contractual and tax structuring requires attention. The three most common solutions are: hiring through an Italian Employer of Record (EOR), opening an Italian VAT registration (partita IVA) with the US employer as client, or maintaining the US contract and declaring income in Italy under the 1999 US-Italy tax treaty. The impatriati regime can apply if requirements are met.
The United States taxes its citizens on worldwide income regardless of residence, so US citizens continue filing federal returns (Form 1040) even while living abroad. The 1999 US-Italy tax treaty governs the allocation of taxing rights to prevent double taxation. Specific obligations remain, including FBAR (FinCEN Form 114) for foreign accounts above $10,000 and Form 8938 for FATCA compliance.
